Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints30
- Anfernee SimonsAssists8
- Shaedon SharpeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–112
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound125–112
- Q40.0Scoot Henderson misses 25-foot step back jumpshot125–112
- Q419.1Scoot Henderson defensive rebound125–112
- Q422.2Luka Doncic misses 26-foot step back jumpshot125–112
- Q440.0Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound125–112
- Q443.1Scoot Henderson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot125–112
- Q452.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound125–112
- Q454.0Duop Reath misses 26-foot three point jumper125–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:28Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot step back jumpshotDAL 99 – 96 POR · POR 18% → 29% +10POR 18% → 29%+10 pts
- Q49:58Anfernee Simons makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotDAL 99 – 98 POR · POR 29% → 37% +8POR 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q49:47Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three pointerDAL 102 – 98 POR · DAL 63% → 75% +12DAL 63% → 75%+12 pts
- Q47:04Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 109 – 100 POR · DAL 84% → 92% +8DAL 84% → 92%+8 pts
- Q43:47Duop Reath makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)DAL 115 – 109 POR · POR 4% → 11% +7POR 4% → 11%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5
- DAL 70%
- Fair odds
- DAL -221
- POR +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 116.0 – 109.9 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +96 | −46 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +146 Elo | DAL 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.7 | Points scored | 105.230th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 111.810th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −6.625th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 103.930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 110.49th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.3 | Pace | 99.624th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 2–526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+96 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.