Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints25
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints25
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- Omer YurtsevenRebounds15
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game113–118
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime113–118
- OT0.1Deandre Ayton defensive rebound113–118
- OT2.1Keyonte George misses free throw 2 of 2113–118
- OT2.1Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2113–118
- OT2.1Shaedon Sharpe loose ball foul113–117
- OT2.1Jazz defensive team rebound113–117
- OT3.1Malcolm Brogdon misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot113–117
- OT7.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound113–117
- OT7.1Omer Yurtseven blocks Malcolm Brogdon 's 7-foot driving layup113–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q440.1Malcolm Brogdon makes 30-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 106 – 106 UTAH · POR 9% → 50% +41POR 9% → 50%+41 pts
- OT3:39Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)POR 111 – 108 UTAH · POR 49% → 71% +22POR 49% → 71%+22 pts
- OT2:30John Collins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)POR 111 – 113 UTAH · UTAH 42% → 68% +27UTAH 42% → 68%+27 pts
- OT1:36Toumani Camara makes tip shotPOR 113 – 113 UTAH · POR 28% → 49% +22POR 28% → 49%+22 pts
- OT1:14Omer Yurtseven makes dunkPOR 113 – 115 UTAH · UTAH 50% → 75% +24UTAH 50% → 75%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- UTAH 49%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -112
- POR +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 110.7 – 111.5 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | −27 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +4 Elo | POR 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.7 | Points scored | 111.721st of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 118.725th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.8 | Margin | −7.026th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.6 | Offense rating | 109.425th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 116.225th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.8 | Pace | 101.116th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 1–1 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.