Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints28
- Shaedon SharpeAssists5
- Toumani CamaraRebounds13
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Draymond GreenAssists9
- Draymond GreenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–110
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound106–110
- Q40.1Anfernee Simons misses 34-foot three point jumper106–110
- Q42.0Jonathan Kuminga enters the game for Stephen Curry106–110
- Q42.0Trail Blazers Full timeout106–110
- Q42.0Klay Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2106–110
- Q42.0Duop Reath enters the game for Kris Murray106–109
- Q42.0Klay Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2106–109
- Q42.0Scoot Henderson personal take foul106–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:16Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)POR 98 – 95 GS · GS 20% → 36% +16GS 20% → 36%+16 pts
- Q43:03Jonathan Kuminga makes 3-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)POR 100 – 101 GS · GS 45% → 61% +16GS 45% → 61%+16 pts
- Q41:59Klay Thompson makes 4-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)POR 100 – 103 GS · GS 63% → 80% +17GS 63% → 80%+17 pts
- Q451.1Matisse Thybulle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 104 – 105 GS · POR 5% → 33% +28POR 5% → 33%+28 pts
- Q410.0Stephen Curry makes 28-foot step back jumpshotPOR 104 – 108 GS · GS 82% → >99% +18GS 82% → >99%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 67%
- Fair odds
- GS -169
- POR +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.6 – 113.6 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −24 | +9 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +126 Elo | GS 67.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.2 | Points scored | 114.812th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 114.520th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.7 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.9 | Offense rating | 112.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 112.117th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.513th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–8 | Road vs home | 4–623rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.