Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Ochai AgbajiPoints21
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists11
- Omer YurtsevenRebounds9
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints40
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–147
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–147
- Q40.1shot clock turnover97–147
- Q424.1Walker Kessler makes dunk97–147
- Q424.1Walker Kessler offensive rebound95–147
- Q425.1Keyonte George misses driving floating jump shot95–147
- Q435.0Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound95–147
- Q438.1Markieff Morris misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot95–147
- Q453.2Keyonte George out of bounds bad pass turnover95–147
- Q41:06Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes dunk (Jaden Hardy assists)95–147
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:31Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshotUTAH 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 73% → 78% +5DAL 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q111:03Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dante Exum assists)UTAH 0 – 6 DAL · DAL 78% → 83% +4DAL 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q18:15Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)UTAH 11 – 15 DAL · UTAH 16% → 21% +4UTAH 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q17:15Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 14 – 20 DAL · UTAH 14% → 18% +4UTAH 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q17:00Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Kyrie Irving assists)UTAH 14 – 23 DAL · DAL 82% → 86% +4DAL 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -7
- DAL 75%
- Fair odds
- DAL -278
- UTAH +278 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.1 – 120.9 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | +73 | UTAH: Missing Kelly Olynyk −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +195 Elo | DAL 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.0 | Points scored | 118.26th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 118.022nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.4 | Margin | +0.218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 115.77th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 115.524th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.8 | Pace | 102.28th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 5–418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−26 Elo- Kelly Olynyk right shoulder−4 Elo
Mavericks
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.