Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints34
- Draymond GreenAssists13
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds12
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints38
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists5
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game136–138
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime136–138
- OT0.0(00:00) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)136–138
- OT0.0Brandin Podziemski makes layup136–138
- OT1.0Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound134–138
- OT2.0Dario Saric offensive rebound134–138
- OT2.0Brandin Podziemski misses layup134–138
- OT5.0Moses Moody misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot134–138
- OT5.0Moses Moody offensive rebound134–138
- OT7.0Klay Thompson misses 26-foot three point jumper134–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:52Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 112 – 111 OKC · GS 26% → 56% +30GS 26% → 56%+30 pts
- Q451.0Stephen Curry makes two point shotGS 114 – 113 OKC · GS 32% → 62% +30GS 32% → 62%+30 pts
- Q439.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 11-foot pullup jump shotGS 115 – 115 OKC · OKC 20% → 53% +32OKC 20% → 53%+32 pts
- Q419.0Stephen Curry makes 27-foot step back jumpshotGS 118 – 115 OKC · GS 48% → 97% +49GS 48% → 97%+49 pts
- Q47.1Chet Holmgren makes free throw 3 of 3GS 118 – 118 OKC · OKC 15% → 51% +36OKC 15% → 51%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6.5
- OKC 75%
- Fair odds
- OKC -261
- GS +261 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 112.1 – 119.4 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +95 | GS: Missing Chris Paul −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +187 Elo | OKC 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 72.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 118.86th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 111.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +7.52nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 116.08th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 108.76th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.5 | Pace | 101.711th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+2 Elo- Chris Paul illness−4 Elo
Thunder
+95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–2 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.