Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints25
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints24
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–117
- Q40.2Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Jaylin Williams118–117
- Q40.2Jaylin Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe118–117
- Q40.2Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Peyton Watson118–117
- Q40.2Nuggets Full timeout118–117
- Q41.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 8-foot two point shot118–117
- Q48.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound116–117
- Q413.1Nikola Jokic misses 27-foot three point jumper116–117
- Q437.1Jalen Williams makes driving layup116–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:38Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 112 – 113 DEN · OKC 19% → 38% +19OKC 19% → 38%+19 pts
- Q41:25Michael Porter Jr. makes jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)OKC 112 – 115 DEN · DEN 63% → 83% +20DEN 63% → 83%+20 pts
- Q444.0Jamal Murray makes 20-foot step back jumpshotOKC 114 – 117 DEN · DEN 67% → 90% +23DEN 67% → 90%+23 pts
- Q437.1Jalen Williams makes driving layupOKC 116 – 117 DEN · OKC 8% → 32% +23OKC 8% → 32%+23 pts
- Q41.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 8-foot two point shotOKC 118 – 117 DEN · OKC <1% → >99% +99OKC <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- DEN 53%
- Fair odds
- DEN -131
- OKC +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 115.3 – 117.4 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +103 | +117 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +19 Elo | DEN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.5 | Points scored | 114.614th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 110.56th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.0 | Margin | +4.19th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.4 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 111.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.4 | Pace | 99.225th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 10–15th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+103 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+117 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 0–1 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.