Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Spencer DinwiddiePoints17
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists8
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds13
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–124
- Q44.0Hunter Tyson defensive rebound101–124
- Q47.0Armoni Brooks misses 26-foot step back jumpshot101–124
- Q418.1Trendon Watford offensive rebound101–124
- Q418.1Harry Giles III misses two point shot101–124
- Q419.0Harry Giles III offensive rebound101–124
- Q423.1Armoni Brooks misses 25-foot three point shot101–124
- Q438.0Zeke Nnaji makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)101–124
- Q455.1Armoni Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)101–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:53Mikal Bridges makes 27-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 10 – 10 DEN · BKN 30% → 36% +6BKN 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q17:40Jamal Murray makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)BKN 10 – 13 DEN · DEN 64% → 70% +6DEN 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q15:00Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)BKN 17 – 17 DEN · BKN 30% → 36% +6BKN 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q12:22Reggie Jackson makes 25-foot three pointerBKN 19 – 26 DEN · DEN 72% → 77% +6DEN 72% → 77%+6 pts
- Q26:53Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)BKN 32 – 41 DEN · DEN 76% → 81% +6DEN 76% → 81%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 61%
- Fair odds
- DEN -186
- BKN +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 112.2 – 116.9 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +62 | +109 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +75 Elo | DEN 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 114.215th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 110.97th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +3.49th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 115.39th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 99.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 9–15th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+109 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.