Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints29
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Aaron GordonRebounds12
Hawks- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints40
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Clint CapelaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–122
- Q43.1Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2129–122
- Q43.1Nuggets offensive team rebound128–122
- Q43.1Aaron Gordon misses free throw 1 of 2128–122
- Q43.1Saddiq Bey personal take foul128–122
- Q46.0Aaron Gordon defensive rebound128–122
- Q49.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot128–122
- Q411.1Dejounte Murray offensive rebound128–122
- Q415.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 26-foot three point jumper128–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:22Julian Strawther makes 25-foot three pointer (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 50 – 52 ATL · DEN 37% → 45% +8DEN 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q25:02Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)DEN 50 – 55 ATL · ATL 55% → 63% +8ATL 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q23:12Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 57 – 58 ATL · DEN 39% → 48% +8DEN 39% → 48%+8 pts
- Q39:59Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 73 – 66 ATL · DEN 62% → 71% +8DEN 62% → 71%+8 pts
- Q39:41Trae Young makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDEN 73 – 69 ATL · ATL 29% → 38% +8ATL 29% → 38%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DEN 50%
- Fair odds
- DEN -101
- ATL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 118.5 – 118.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +107 | +58 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +1 Elo | DEN 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 122.22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 122.527th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 116.75th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 117.025th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.1 | Pace | 104.33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 3–624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+107 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.