Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints32
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Clint CapelaRebounds17
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints32
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–132
- Q43.0Saddiq Bey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)121–132
- Q44.1Saddiq Bey offensive rebound118–132
- Q47.1Dejounte Murray misses 23-foot three point jumper118–132
- Q417.1Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)118–132
- Q438.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound118–129
- Q438.1Trae Young misses 26-foot step back jumpshot118–129
- Q447.0Brook Lopez makes 1-foot two point shot118–129
- Q41:09Bucks defensive team rebound118–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:41Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 103 – 101 MIL · ATL 38% → 51% +13ATL 38% → 51%+13 pts
- Q49:54Malik Beasley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)ATL 103 – 104 MIL · MIL 48% → 62% +14MIL 48% → 62%+14 pts
- Q46:46Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 110 – 112 MIL · ATL 20% → 33% +13ATL 20% → 33%+13 pts
- Q45:09Damian Lillard makes 13-foot two point shotATL 114 – 116 MIL · MIL 55% → 68% +12MIL 55% → 68%+12 pts
- Q44:44Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)ATL 114 – 119 MIL · MIL 68% → 83% +15MIL 68% → 83%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -5
- MIL 68%
- Fair odds
- MIL -196
- ATL +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.6 – 124.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | +105 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +133 Elo | MIL 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.3 | Points scored | 120.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 117.923rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +2.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 116.25th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 113.721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 103.05th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 8–15th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+105 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.