Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints26
- Damian LillardAssists13
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints29
- Coby WhiteAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game113–120
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime113–120
- OT0.0Bucks offensive team rebound113–120
- OT0.0Malik Beasley misses 41-foot three point jumper113–120
- OT2.2Patrick Williams makes 1-foot dunk113–120
- OT3.1Giannis Antetokounmpo bad pass (Patrick Williams steals)113–118
- OT6.0Bucks Full timeout113–118
- OT6.1Bobby Portis defensive rebound113–118
- OT8.1Coby White misses free throw 2 of 2113–118
- OT8.1Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2113–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:02Malik Beasley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 96 – 98 CHI · MIL 19% → 40% +21MIL 19% → 40%+21 pts
- Q421.1Brook Lopez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 104 – 103 CHI · MIL 12% → 75% +62MIL 12% → 75%+62 pts
- Q40.0Alex Caruso makes 28-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)MIL 106 – 106 CHI · CHI 0% → 42% +42CHI 0% → 42%+42 pts
- OT3:36Coby White makes 23-foot step back jumpshotMIL 108 – 109 CHI · CHI 29% → 51% +22CHI 29% → 51%+22 pts
- OT1:14Ayo Dosunmu makes two point shotMIL 110 – 113 CHI · CHI 59% → 81% +22CHI 59% → 81%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -7.5
- MIL 78%
- Fair odds
- MIL -270
- CHI +270 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 118.7 – 111.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +112 | −27 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +215 Elo | MIL 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 106.228th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 112.815th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.1 | Margin | −6.723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 108.226th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 115.022nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.9 | Pace | 97.130th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 4–622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+112 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.