Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints19
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints30
- Jrue HolidayAssists9
- Sam HauserRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–124
- Q40.1Luke Kornet enters the game for Lamar Stevens97–124
- Q40.1Bulls offensive team rebound97–124
- Q41.0Lamar Stevens blocks Ayo Dosunmu 's 3-foot two point shot97–124
- Q47.1Dalen Terry defensive rebound97–124
- Q47.1Sam Hauser misses free throw 2 of 297–124
- Q47.1Lamar Stevens enters the game for Luke Kornet97–124
- Q47.1Sam Hauser makes free throw 1 of 297–124
- Q47.1Dalen Terry personal foul97–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:47Coby White makes 22-foot step back jumpshot (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 8 – 5 BOS · CHI 29% → 35% +6CHI 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q18:31Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)CHI 8 – 8 BOS · BOS 65% → 70% +6BOS 65% → 70%+6 pts
- Q16:43Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)CHI 10 – 13 BOS · BOS 70% → 76% +5BOS 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q16:24DeMar DeRozan makes 27-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)CHI 13 – 13 BOS · CHI 24% → 30% +6CHI 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q15:23Jaylen Brown makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)CHI 13 – 16 BOS · BOS 70% → 75% +6BOS 70% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 78%
- Fair odds
- BOS -247
- CHI +247 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 106.8 – 113.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1584 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +26 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +222 Elo | BOS 78.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.7 | Points scored | 115.89th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 107.34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.6 | Margin | +8.52nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 115.18th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 106.64th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.1 | Pace | 99.324th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.