Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints33
- Damian LillardAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints31
- Josh RichardsonAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–124
- Q43.1Khris Middleton defensive rebound131–124
- Q46.0Josh Richardson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot131–124
- Q414.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunk (Brook Lopez assists)131–124
- Q424.2Caleb Martin enters the game for Duncan Robinson129–124
- Q424.2Bucks Full timeout129–124
- Q431.1Khris Middleton defensive rebound129–124
- Q434.0Duncan Robinson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot129–124
- Q438.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Caleb Martin129–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:46Damian Lillard makes 25-foot three pointerMIL 115 – 113 MIA · MIL 45% → 64% +19MIL 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q43:25Kyle Lowry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Richardson assists)MIL 115 – 118 MIA · MIA 49% → 71% +22MIA 49% → 71%+22 pts
- Q43:03Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)MIL 118 – 118 MIA · MIL 28% → 51% +23MIL 28% → 51%+23 pts
- Q42:15Khris Middleton makes 18-foot two point shot (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 120 – 118 MIA · MIL 51% → 69% +18MIL 51% → 69%+18 pts
- Q41:05Bam Adebayo makes 5-foot two point shot (Josh Richardson assists)MIL 124 – 122 MIA · MIA 8% → 24% +16MIA 8% → 24%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- MIL 53%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 114.5 – 113.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +86 | +18 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −26 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +22 Elo | MIL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 109.824th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 107.86th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +2.014th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 111.615th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 109.68th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.0 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 13th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+18 Elo- Jimmy Butler III right ankle sprain−26 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.