Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints24
- Dejounte MurrayAssists9
- Clint CapelaRebounds16
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints38
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–125
- Q45.0shot clock turnover114–125
- Q426.1Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound114–125
- Q430.0Dejounte Murray misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot114–125
- Q435.2Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2114–125
- Q435.2Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2114–124
- Q435.2Bogdan Bogdanovic personal take foul114–123
- Q437.1Dejounte Murray makes 29-foot three pointer114–123
- Q443.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2111–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:12De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 101 – 102 PHI · ATL 23% → 37% +14ATL 23% → 37%+14 pts
- Q45:37Saddiq Bey makes layupATL 106 – 104 PHI · ATL 43% → 55% +12ATL 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q45:23Joel Embiid makes finger roll layup (Tyrese Maxey assists)ATL 107 – 106 PHI · PHI 39% → 51% +12PHI 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q43:15De'Anthony Melton makes 1-foot dunk (Nicolas Batum assists)ATL 109 – 111 PHI · PHI 56% → 71% +15PHI 56% → 71%+15 pts
- Q42:31Joel Embiid makes 18-foot two point shot (Nicolas Batum assists)ATL 109 – 113 PHI · PHI 72% → 85% +13PHI 72% → 85%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7
- PHI 76%
- Fair odds
- PHI -240
- ATL +240 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.5 – 124.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +87 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +197 Elo | PHI 75.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.7 | Points scored | 120.74th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 113.817th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +6.94th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 118.72nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 111.916th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 101.116th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 7–38th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.