Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints50
- Joel EmbiidAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds13
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints23
- Tyus JonesAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–126
- Q40.0Wizards offensive team rebound131–126
- Q40.0Danilo Gallinari misses 32-foot step back jumpshot131–126
- Q45.1De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2131–126
- Q45.1De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 1 of 2130–126
- Q45.1Jordan Poole personal take foul129–126
- Q46.2Danilo Gallinari makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)129–126
- Q411.1De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2129–123
- Q411.1De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 1 of 2128–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:05Patrick Beverley makes 28-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 97 – 95 WSH · PHI 56% → 68% +11PHI 56% → 68%+11 pts
- Q410:03Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point shot (Jared Butler assists)PHI 99 – 100 WSH · WSH 32% → 45% +13WSH 32% → 45%+13 pts
- Q43:35Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 120 – 113 WSH · PHI 82% → 93% +11PHI 82% → 93%+11 pts
- Q43:18Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHI 120 – 116 WSH · WSH 6% → 18% +11WSH 6% → 18%+11 pts
- Q42:17Jordan Poole makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHI 122 – 119 WSH · WSH 6% → 20% +14WSH 6% → 20%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7
- PHI 76%
- Fair odds
- PHI -226
- WSH +226 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 122.5 – 116.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +84 | −33 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +202 Elo | PHI 76.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.1 | Points scored | 116.87th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 125.129th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.0 | Margin | −8.327th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 111.021st of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 118.829th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.9 | Pace | 105.32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 1–627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+84 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.