Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints23
- Kyle KuzmaAssists6
- Jordan PooleRebounds5
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints31
- Joe InglesAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–139
- Q41.1Caleb Houstan defensive rebound120–139
- Q42.1Anthony Gill misses 26-foot three point jumper120–139
- Q49.0shot clock turnover120–139
- Q431.1Anthony Black defensive rebound120–139
- Q435.0Jared Butler misses 26-foot step back jumpshot120–139
- Q445.2Anthony Black makes two point shot (Caleb Houstan assists)120–139
- Q41:01Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 2120–137
- Q41:01Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2119–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:46Joe Ingles makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)WSH 16 – 15 ORL · ORL 67% → 73% +6ORL 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q25:10Deni Avdija makes 23-foot three point shot (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 46 – 47 ORL · WSH 21% → 27% +6WSH 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q36:45Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot step back jumpshotWSH 75 – 79 ORL · WSH 15% → 22% +7WSH 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q36:29Franz Wagner makes 26-foot step back jumpshotWSH 75 – 82 ORL · ORL 78% → 85% +7ORL 78% → 85%+7 pts
- Q35:20Franz Wagner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)WSH 78 – 87 ORL · ORL 83% → 89% +6ORL 83% → 89%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -9.5
- ORL 82%
- Fair odds
- ORL -321
- WSH +321 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.4 – 119.3 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +44 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Missing Jonathan Isaac −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +261 Elo | ORL 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 76.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 112.618th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 107.45th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.9 | Margin | +5.35th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 110.421st of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 105.22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Pace | 102.010th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 7–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+44 Elo- Jonathan Isaac left ankle injury−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.