Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Patrick BeverleyPoints26
- Patrick BeverleyAssists7
- Patrick BeverleyRebounds8
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints21
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–125
- Q41.0Luke Kornet defensive rebound119–125
- Q43.2Tobias Harris misses free throw 2 of 2119–125
- Q43.2Luke Kornet enters the game for Payton Pritchard119–125
- Q43.276ers offensive team rebound119–125
- Q43.2Tobias Harris misses free throw 1 of 2119–125
- Q43.2Jaylen Brown personal foul119–125
- Q44.176ers Full timeout119–125
- Q44.1Al Horford makes free throw 2 of 2119–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:56Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)PHI 106 – 107 BOS · BOS 46% → 62% +16BOS 46% → 62%+16 pts
- Q43:24Patrick Beverley makes 27-foot step back jumpshotPHI 113 – 113 BOS · PHI 24% → 45% +21PHI 24% → 45%+21 pts
- Q43:03Jaylen Brown makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Derrick White assists)PHI 113 – 115 BOS · BOS 55% → 70% +16BOS 55% → 70%+16 pts
- Q42:46Marcus Morris Sr. makes 10-foot pullup jump shot (Patrick Beverley assists)PHI 115 – 115 BOS · PHI 29% → 45% +16PHI 29% → 45%+16 pts
- Q42:09Al Horford makes 5-foot two point shotPHI 116 – 117 BOS · BOS 44% → 64% +19BOS 44% → 64%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 69%
- Fair odds
- BOS -215
- PHI +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.9 – 116.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | +48 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −45, Nicolas Batum −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +143 Elo | BOS 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.2 | Points scored | 116.39th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 106.73rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.7 | Margin | +9.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 115.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 106.22nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.324th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–3 | Road vs home | 8–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−14 Elo- Tyrese Maxey illness−45 Elo
- Nicolas Batum right finger−1 Elo
Celtics
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.