Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints27
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Daniel GaffordRebounds11
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints31
- Franz WagnerAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–130
- Q40.0Bilal Coulibaly makes driving layup125–130
- Q46.0Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2123–130
- Q46.0Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2123–129
- Q46.0Landry Shamet personal foul123–128
- Q48.1Bilal Coulibaly makes two point shot123–128
- Q48.1Bilal Coulibaly offensive rebound121–128
- Q410.1Jordan Poole misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot121–128
- Q415.0Corey Kispert enters the game for Tyus Jones121–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:23Joe Ingles makes 26-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)WSH 91 – 95 ORL · ORL 69% → 79% +10ORL 69% → 79%+10 pts
- Q410:32Landry Shamet makes 24-foot three pointerWSH 96 – 97 ORL · WSH 21% → 32% +11WSH 21% → 32%+11 pts
- Q49:46Landry Shamet makes 23-foot step back jumpshotWSH 99 – 100 ORL · WSH 21% → 32% +11WSH 21% → 32%+11 pts
- Q49:12Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)WSH 102 – 102 ORL · WSH 24% → 37% +12WSH 24% → 37%+12 pts
- Q48:53Landry Shamet makes 26-foot three point shot (Deni Avdija assists)WSH 105 – 102 ORL · WSH 37% → 51% +14WSH 37% → 51%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -10
- ORL 84%
- Fair odds
- ORL -362
- WSH +362 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 111.2 – 121.0 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | +63 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +286 Elo | ORL 83.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 77.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 78.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 114.114th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.8 | Points allowed | 108.15th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.5 | Margin | +6.15th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 111.717th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.8 | Defense rating | 105.82nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.1 | Pace | 102.18th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 8–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.