Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints32
- Mikal BridgesAssists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds10
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.1Hawks offensive team rebound114–113
- Q40.1Trae Young misses driving floating jump shot114–113
- Q44.1Saddiq Bey enters the game for Clint Capela114–113
- Q44.1Hawks Full timeout114–113
- Q45.0Mikal Bridges makes 17-foot two point shot114–113
- Q417.1Trae Young makes 26-foot step back jumpshot112–113
- Q422.0Trae Young enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu112–110
- Q422.0Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Saddiq Bey112–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:58Trae Young makes 25-foot three point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)BKN 102 – 104 ATL · ATL 42% → 67% +25ATL 42% → 67%+25 pts
- Q42:19Spencer Dinwiddie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)BKN 107 – 104 ATL · BKN 50% → 76% +26BKN 50% → 76%+26 pts
- Q432.1Mikal Bridges makes 1-foot layup (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 111 – 110 ATL · BKN 31% → 69% +38BKN 31% → 69%+38 pts
- Q417.1Trae Young makes 26-foot step back jumpshotBKN 112 – 113 ATL · ATL 9% → 75% +66ATL 9% → 75%+66 pts
- Q45.0Mikal Bridges makes 17-foot two point shotBKN 114 – 113 ATL · BKN 11% → 89% +79BKN 11% → 89%+79 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1
- ATL 46%
- Fair odds
- ATL -106
- BKN +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 119.8 – 120.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +64 | +59 | BKN: Missing Lonnie Walker IV −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +31 Elo | BKN 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 123.22nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 122.827th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +0.416th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 117.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 104.53rd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 3–524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+64 Elo- Lonnie Walker IV left hamstring strain−5 Elo
Hawks
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–1 ATL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.