Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints20
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints42
- Royce O'NealeAssists7
- Dennis Smith Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–129
- Q43.1Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound101–129
- Q47.1Admiral Schofield misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot101–129
- Q425.1Trendon Watford makes free throw 1 of 1101–129
- Q425.1Anthony Black shooting foul101–128
- Q425.1Trendon Watford makes driving layup (Royce O'Neale assists)101–128
- Q442.0Royce O'Neale defensive rebound101–126
- Q445.0Chuma Okeke misses 27-foot three point jumper101–126
- Q41:00Cam Thomas makes 26-foot three pointer (Royce O'Neale assists)101–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:35Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)ORL 0 – 3 BKN · BKN 54% → 60% +6BKN 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q110:11Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)ORL 2 – 6 BKN · BKN 56% → 62% +6BKN 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q17:57Franz Wagner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 9 – 8 BKN · ORL 42% → 48% +6ORL 42% → 48%+6 pts
- Q15:40Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point shot (Cameron Johnson assists)ORL 9 – 17 BKN · BKN 65% → 71% +6BKN 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q33:09Cole Anthony makes 23-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 78 – 87 BKN · ORL 12% → 19% +7ORL 12% → 19%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -0.5
- BKN 51%
- Fair odds
- BKN -118
- ORL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 113.5 – 114.8 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +67 | +67 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Lonnie Walker IV −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +7 Elo | BKN 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 116.011th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 114.720th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.0 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 115.69th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.3 | Defense rating | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.4 | Pace | 99.723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 6–517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+67 Elo- Lonnie Walker IV injury/illness−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 0–1 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.