Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints17
- Deni AvdijaAssists4
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds10
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints21
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists9
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–124
- Q40.0Wizards offensive team rebound97–124
- Q40.0Anthony Gill misses 9-foot two point shot97–124
- Q40.1Anthony Gill offensive rebound97–124
- Q40.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses two point shot97–124
- Q41.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. offensive rebound97–124
- Q44.1Harry Giles III blocks Patrick Baldwin Jr. 's 2-foot layup97–124
- Q411.0shot clock turnover97–124
- Q435.0Jared Butler out of bounds bad pass turnover97–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:17Deni Avdija makes 23-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 26 – 28 BKN · WSH 20% → 26% +6WSH 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q27:53Royce O'Neale makes 31-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)WSH 30 – 31 BKN · BKN 65% → 72% +7BKN 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q39:11Cam Thomas makes 27-foot three point shotWSH 50 – 57 BKN · BKN 77% → 84% +6BKN 77% → 84%+6 pts
- Q38:50Kyle Kuzma makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 53 – 57 BKN · WSH 16% → 23% +7WSH 16% → 23%+7 pts
- Q38:16Cameron Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)WSH 53 – 60 BKN · BKN 77% → 84% +7BKN 77% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -8.5
- BKN 79%
- Fair odds
- BKN -283
- WSH +283 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 114.7 – 122.6 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | +58 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Lonnie Walker IV −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +233 Elo | BKN 79.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 116.58th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.4 | Points allowed | 114.018th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.2 | Margin | +2.614th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 115.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.1 | Defense rating | 113.319th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.3 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 7–517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+58 Elo- Lonnie Walker IV left hamstring strain−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.