Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Reggie JacksonPoints25
- Reggie JacksonAssists6
- DeAndre JordanRebounds10
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints27
- Coby WhiteAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q45.1shot clock turnover114–106
- Q429.1Terry Taylor makes tip shot114–106
- Q429.1Terry Taylor offensive rebound114–104
- Q429.1Ayo Dosunmu misses two point shot114–104
- Q439.0Peyton Watson enters the game for Julian Strawther114–104
- Q439.0Christian Braun enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.114–104
- Q439.0Julian Phillips enters the game for DeMar DeRozan114–104
- Q439.0Dalen Terry enters the game for Nikola Vucevic114–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:30Reggie Jackson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)DEN 36 – 30 CHI · DEN 65% → 72% +7DEN 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q310:39Julian Strawther makes 27-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 61 – 54 CHI · DEN 68% → 76% +8DEN 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q39:44Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)DEN 63 – 57 CHI · CHI 20% → 27% +7CHI 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q32:21Jevon Carter makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)DEN 83 – 76 CHI · CHI 14% → 21% +7CHI 14% → 21%+7 pts
- Q31:10Justin Holiday makes 23-foot three point shot (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 87 – 78 CHI · DEN 76% → 85% +8DEN 76% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 59%
- Fair odds
- DEN -147
- CHI +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 114.1 – 111.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHI and DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +101 | +8 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +66 Elo | DEN 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 109.327th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 113.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −4.123rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 110.222nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 114.322nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.3 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 7–619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+101 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.