Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints41
- DeMar DeRozanAssists11
- Andre DrummondRebounds16
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints32
- Damian LillardAssists9
- Khris MiddletonRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game129–133
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime129–133
- OT2.1Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound129–133
- OT4.1Coby White misses 27-foot step back jumpshot129–133
- OT10.0Bulls Full timeout129–133
- OT10.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2129–133
- OT10.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2129–132
- OT10.0Coby White personal foul129–131
- OT12.1Bucks Full timeout129–131
- OT12.1DeMar DeRozan makes 2-foot driving dunk129–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:35Coby White makes 25-foot three pointer (DeMar DeRozan assists)CHI 110 – 112 MIL · CHI 10% → 28% +17CHI 10% → 28%+17 pts
- Q41:48Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunkCHI 110 – 114 MIL · MIL 75% → 88% +14MIL 75% → 88%+14 pts
- Q429.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2CHI 116 – 117 MIL · CHI 14% → 28% +14CHI 14% → 28%+14 pts
- Q412.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2CHI 116 – 118 MIL · MIL 80% → 95% +15MIL 80% → 95%+15 pts
- Q43.1DeMar DeRozan makes 1-foot driving floating jump shotCHI 118 – 118 MIL · CHI <1% → 49% +49CHI <1% → 49%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -7
- MIL 76%
- Fair odds
- MIL -280
- CHI +280 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 112.2 – 120.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | +109 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +202 Elo | MIL 76.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 73.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.4 | Points scored | 122.13rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 118.723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.1 | Margin | +3.49th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 114.323rd of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.3 | Pace | 103.25th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 10–26th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+109 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.