Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints27
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists15
- Buddy HieldRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–119
- Q411.0Buddy Hield defensive rebound128–119
- Q414.0Khris Middleton misses driving layup128–119
- Q421.0Buddy Hield makes free throw 2 of 2128–119
- Q421.0Buddy Hield makes free throw 1 of 2127–119
- Q421.0Giannis Antetokounmpo personal take foul126–119
- Q424.1Khris Middleton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)126–119
- Q427.0Bucks Full timeout126–116
- Q427.0Bruce Brown makes free throw 2 of 2126–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:45Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)IND 99 – 98 MIL · MIL 37% → 51% +14MIL 37% → 51%+14 pts
- Q42:19Myles Turner makes tip shotIND 115 – 112 MIL · IND 57% → 74% +17IND 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q42:00Buddy Hield makes tip shotIND 117 – 112 MIL · IND 76% → 89% +13IND 76% → 89%+13 pts
- Q41:54Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 4-foot two point shot (Khris Middleton assists)IND 117 – 114 MIL · MIL 11% → 23% +13MIL 11% → 23%+13 pts
- Q41:33Tyrese Haliburton makes driving layupIND 119 – 114 MIL · IND 79% → 92% +13IND 79% → 92%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3.5
- MIL 63%
- Fair odds
- MIL -163
- IND +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 123.7 – 127.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +99 | +116 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +95 Elo | MIL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30128.4 | Points scored | 122.33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.2 | Points allowed | 118.324th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.2 | Margin | +4.05th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.7 | Offense rating | 117.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.7 | Defense rating | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.4 | Pace | 103.05th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 10–13rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+116 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.