Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bruce BrownPoints30
- T.J. McConnellAssists11
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints33
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists5
- Kyle LowryRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game144–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter144–129
- Q46.1shot clock turnover144–129
- Q430.1Kevin Love makes free throw 2 of 2144–129
- Q430.1Jamal Cain enters the game for Jimmy Butler144–128
- Q430.1Kevin Love makes free throw 1 of 2144–128
- Q430.1Ben Sheppard shooting foul144–127
- Q436.1Ben Sheppard enters the game for Obi Toppin144–127
- Q436.1Heat defensive team rebound144–127
- Q439.1Aaron Nesmith misses 23-foot three point jumper144–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:58Bruce Brown makes 22-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)IND 72 – 70 MIA · IND 39% → 48% +9IND 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q38:45Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 77 – 72 MIA · IND 49% → 58% +9IND 49% → 58%+9 pts
- Q38:13Buddy Hield makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 80 – 72 MIA · IND 59% → 68% +9IND 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q33:52Obi Toppin makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 94 – 86 MIA · IND 61% → 71% +10IND 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q32:56Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 97 – 88 MIA · IND 66% → 75% +10IND 66% → 75%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -4
- MIA 65%
- Fair odds
- MIA -157
- IND +157 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 117.9 – 121.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +35 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +107 Elo | MIA 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30127.9 | Points scored | 112.320th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.8 | Points allowed | 110.38th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +1.914th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 113.211th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.8 | Defense rating | 111.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.8 | Pace | 99.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 0–1 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.