Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints44
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints36
- Kevin LoveAssists6
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–142
- Q40.0Pacers offensive team rebound132–142
- Q40.1Obi Toppin misses 23-foot three point jumper132–142
- Q48.1Kevin Love makes free throw 2 of 2132–142
- Q48.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Jimmy Butler132–141
- Q48.1Kevin Love makes free throw 1 of 2132–141
- Q48.1Jarace Walker enters the game for Buddy Hield132–140
- Q48.1Ben Sheppard enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton132–140
- Q48.1Buddy Hield personal take foul132–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:30Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 103 – 97 MIA · IND 61% → 73% +12IND 61% → 73%+12 pts
- Q410:38Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointerIND 103 – 102 MIA · MIA 34% → 47% +13MIA 34% → 47%+13 pts
- Q49:03Josh Richardson makes 6-foot two point shotIND 105 – 108 MIA · MIA 56% → 65% +9MIA 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q48:44Aaron Nesmith makes driving layup (Myles Turner assists)IND 107 – 108 MIA · IND 35% → 44% +9IND 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q48:26Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 6-foot two point shotIND 107 – 110 MIA · MIA 56% → 66% +10MIA 56% → 66%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- MIA 56%
- Fair odds
- MIA -112
- IND +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 117.6 – 118.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +80 | +45 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +41 Elo | MIA 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30127.6 | Points scored | 110.624th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.8 | Points allowed | 109.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.8 | Offense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 110.712th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Pace | 98.527th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 7th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.