New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints41
- Jalen BrunsonAssists6
- RJ BarrettRebounds8
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–146
- Q415.1Charlie Brown Jr. steps out of bounds turnover122–146
- Q422.2Ryan Arcidiacono defensive rebound122–146
- Q426.0Robin Lopez misses 27-foot three point jumper122–146
- Q432.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound122–146
- Q436.1AJ Green misses 26-foot three point jumper122–146
- Q456.1Miles McBride makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Ryan Arcidiacono assists)122–146
- Q41:12Cameron Payne makes 24-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)119–146
- Q41:26Charlie Brown Jr. bad pass (Chris Livingston steals)119–143
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:35Julius Randle makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 60 – 62 MIL · NY 27% → 34% +7NY 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q22:41Damian Lillard makes 28-foot three pointerNY 62 – 65 MIL · MIL 60% → 68% +8MIL 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q21:53Damian Lillard makes 28-foot step back jumpshotNY 64 – 70 MIL · MIL 68% → 75% +7MIL 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q253.1Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 67 – 70 MIL · NY 25% → 32% +7NY 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q23.1Damian Lillard makes 26-foot step back jumpshotNY 72 – 75 MIL · MIL 60% → 68% +8MIL 60% → 68%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2.5
- MIL 60%
- Fair odds
- MIL -174
- NY +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.2 – 116.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +106 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +68 Elo | MIL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 121.13rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.5 | Points allowed | 118.123rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.4 | Margin | +3.010th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 116.75th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 113.820th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.9 | Pace | 103.05th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 9–13rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+106 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.