New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints22
- Julius RandleAssists9
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints29
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–106
- Q414.1Julius Randle defensive rebound119–106
- Q416.2Precious Achiuwa misses driving layup119–106
- Q423.1Isaiah Hartenstein enters the game for Mitchell Robinson119–106
- Q423.1Mitchell Robinson personal foul119–106
- Q423.1Precious Achiuwa offensive rebound119–106
- Q426.1Precious Achiuwa misses 10-foot two point shot119–106
- Q438.0Mitchell Robinson makes 1-foot dunk (Julius Randle assists)119–106
- Q457.1Chris Boucher makes 28-foot three point jumper (Malachi Flynn assists)117–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:07Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 66 – 59 TOR · NY 58% → 67% +9NY 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q34:01Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)NY 75 – 70 TOR · TOR 27% → 36% +10TOR 27% → 36%+10 pts
- Q33:39Josh Hart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 78 – 70 TOR · NY 64% → 73% +10NY 64% → 73%+10 pts
- Q33:20Scottie Barnes makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gary Trent Jr. assists)NY 78 – 73 TOR · TOR 26% → 36% +10TOR 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q31:52Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)NY 83 – 75 TOR · NY 65% → 75% +10NY 65% → 75%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -133
- NY +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.8 – 110.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +36 | +41 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +13 Elo | TOR 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.4 | Points allowed | 112.212th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | −0.720th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 109.623rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 100.519th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.