Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints32
- Derrick WhiteAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds12
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Tyrese HaliburtonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–122
- Q40.0(00:00) [Celtics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)112–122
- Q40.1Buddy Hield makes 23-foot three pointer112–122
- Q44.1Jayson Tatum bad pass (Buddy Hield steals)112–119
- Q45.1Buddy Hield makes free throw 2 of 2112–119
- Q45.1Buddy Hield makes free throw 1 of 2112–118
- Q45.1Jayson Tatum personal take foul112–117
- Q45.2Jayson Tatum lost ball turnover (Buddy Hield steals)112–117
- Q49.1Al Horford defensive rebound112–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:07Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 94 – 94 IND · BOS 32% → 49% +17BOS 32% → 49%+17 pts
- Q43:58Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerBOS 99 – 101 IND · IND 44% → 65% +21IND 44% → 65%+21 pts
- Q42:21Aaron Nesmith makes 2-foot layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)BOS 103 – 105 IND · IND 51% → 69% +18IND 51% → 69%+18 pts
- Q41:57Jayson Tatum makes 19-foot two point shotBOS 105 – 105 IND · BOS 30% → 49% +20BOS 30% → 49%+20 pts
- Q41:33Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three pointerBOS 105 – 108 IND · IND 51% → 81% +31IND 51% → 81%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -0.5
- IND 48%
- Fair odds
- IND -117
- BOS +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 119.9 – 121.0 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | +94 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +16 Elo | BOS 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 128.81st of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.4 | Points allowed | 125.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+9.4 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 120.91st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.6 | Defense rating | 118.328th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.5 | Pace | 106.51st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 6–518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+94 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.