New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints27
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints31
- DeMar DeRozanAssists10
- Coby WhiteRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–124
- Q45.1Coby White defensive rebound118–124
- Q47.2Herbert Jones misses 23-foot step back jumpshot118–124
- Q415.0Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas118–124
- Q415.0Torrey Craig enters the game for Nikola Vucevic118–124
- Q415.0Pelicans Full timeout118–124
- Q415.0Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2118–124
- Q415.0Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for Dyson Daniels118–123
- Q415.0Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2118–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:28Jonas Valanciunas makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 95 – 98 CHI · NO 26% → 39% +13NO 26% → 39%+13 pts
- Q46:45Coby White makes 24-foot three point shot (Torrey Craig assists)NO 98 – 101 CHI · CHI 47% → 63% +16CHI 47% → 63%+16 pts
- Q46:13Coby White makes 24-foot three point jumperNO 98 – 104 CHI · CHI 64% → 79% +15CHI 64% → 79%+15 pts
- Q44:44Coby White makes two point shotNO 102 – 106 CHI · CHI 60% → 72% +12CHI 60% → 72%+12 pts
- Q44:25DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)NO 104 – 110 CHI · CHI 67% → 83% +16CHI 67% → 83%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -3.5
- NO 64%
- Fair odds
- NO -140
- CHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 112.7 – 110.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +70 | −23 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +100 Elo | NO 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 106.828th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 112.815th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −6.024th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 107.926th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 114.022nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.9 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 5–620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.