Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Gordon HaywardPoints27
- Terry RozierAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds11
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints29
- Coby WhiteAssists5
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–111
- Q416.0Coby White defensive rebound100–111
- Q419.1Terry Rozier misses 27-foot three point jumper100–111
- Q421.1Hornets Full timeout100–111
- Q421.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2100–111
- Q421.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2100–110
- Q421.1Brandon Miller personal foul100–109
- Q423.1Miles Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Gordon Hayward assists)100–109
- Q426.1Torrey Craig enters the game for Nikola Vucevic97–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:41Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHA 13 – 10 CHI · CHI 44% → 51% +7CHI 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q16:53Torrey Craig makes 26-foot three pointerCHA 13 – 13 CHI · CHI 51% → 57% +7CHI 51% → 57%+7 pts
- Q16:09Torrey Craig makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHA 15 – 16 CHI · CHI 53% → 59% +7CHI 53% → 59%+7 pts
- Q12:47Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julian Phillips assists)CHA 20 – 25 CHI · CHI 61% → 68% +6CHI 61% → 68%+6 pts
- Q21:07Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 41 – 48 CHI · CHA 19% → 26% +6CHA 19% → 26%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3.5
- CHI 63%
- Fair odds
- CHI -137
- CHA +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 113.4 – 115.8 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | −12 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +93 Elo | CHI 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 107.728th of 30 |
| 26th of 30122.2 | Points allowed | 113.116th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.3 | Margin | −5.424th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 108.926th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.3 | Defense rating | 114.422nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.7 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 6–619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.