Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints22
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints29
- Malik MonkAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–131
- Q418.1Cam Thomas makes free throw 1 of 1118–131
- Q418.1Jalen Slawson shooting foul117–131
- Q418.1Cam Thomas makes driving layup117–131
- Q431.1Jalen Slawson turnover115–131
- Q431.1Jalen Slawson offensive foul115–131
- Q439.1Harry Giles III makes free throw 1 of 1115–131
- Q439.1Colby Jones shooting foul114–131
- Q439.1Harry Giles III makes 2-foot layup (Cam Thomas assists)114–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:58Cam Thomas makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 67 – 71 SAC · BKN 26% → 35% +9BKN 26% → 35%+9 pts
- Q47:13Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot three point shot (Royce O'Neale assists)BKN 101 – 107 SAC · BKN 11% → 20% +9BKN 11% → 20%+9 pts
- Q46:24Trey Lyles makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)BKN 101 – 110 SAC · SAC 81% → 91% +9SAC 81% → 91%+9 pts
- Q46:04Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot three pointerBKN 104 – 110 SAC · BKN 9% → 18% +9BKN 9% → 18%+9 pts
- Q45:50Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)BKN 104 – 113 SAC · SAC 82% → 91% +9SAC 82% → 91%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -0.5
- SAC 48%
- Fair odds
- SAC -113
- BKN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 115.6 – 116.5 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +69 | +54 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +15 Elo | BKN 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 116.49th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 116.722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 113.413th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 113.721st of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.612th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 6–312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.