Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints34
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds17
Suns- Devin BookerPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q413.0Saben Lee makes free throw 2 of 2114–106
- Q413.0Saben Lee makes free throw 1 of 2114–105
- Q413.0Kessler Edwards shooting foul114–104
- Q421.1shot clock turnover114–104
- Q421.1Kings offensive team rebound114–104
- Q422.1Keon Ellis misses 26-foot three point shot114–104
- Q445.2Saben Lee makes driving layup114–104
- Q455.1Davion Mitchell enters the game for Harrison Barnes114–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q257.1Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 50 – 54 PHX · SAC 29% → 37% +8SAC 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q232.1Eric Gordon makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)SAC 50 – 57 PHX · PHX 63% → 71% +8PHX 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q34:41Keon Ellis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sasha Vezenkov assists)SAC 67 – 65 PHX · SAC 45% → 56% +11SAC 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q325.0Keon Ellis makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Sasha Vezenkov assists)SAC 80 – 69 PHX · SAC 79% → 86% +8SAC 79% → 86%+8 pts
- Q47:42De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointerSAC 96 – 87 PHX · SAC 78% → 87% +10SAC 78% → 87%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1
- PHX 54%
- Fair odds
- PHX -108
- SAC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 116.1 – 116.8 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | +32 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | SAC crossed 1 time zone and PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +31 Elo | PHX 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 115.512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 112.916th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +2.614th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 114.410th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 111.814th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.226th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 5–520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.