New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints30
- CJ McCollumAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds11
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints30
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–117
- Q48.1Naji Marshall defensive rebound127–117
- Q415.1Harrison Barnes misses 22-foot three point jumper127–117
- Q418.0Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound127–117
- Q420.1Naji Marshall misses 23-foot three point jumper127–117
- Q442.1De'Aaron Fox bad pass (Dyson Daniels steals)127–117
- Q445.0Kings offensive team rebound127–117
- Q445.0Keegan Murray misses 4-foot two point shot127–117
- Q454.1Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound127–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:25Keon Ellis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)NO 95 – 89 SAC · SAC 21% → 30% +9SAC 21% → 30%+9 pts
- Q31:07Brandon Ingram makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 98 – 91 SAC · NO 64% → 74% +10NO 64% → 74%+10 pts
- Q410:17CJ McCollum makes 26-foot step back jumpshotNO 105 – 95 SAC · NO 77% → 86% +9NO 77% → 86%+9 pts
- Q49:29Malik Monk makes 27-foot three point shot (Trey Lyles assists)NO 105 – 100 SAC · SAC 18% → 29% +11SAC 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q48:36De'Aaron Fox makes two point shot (Trey Lyles assists)NO 107 – 102 SAC · SAC 21% → 28% +8SAC 21% → 28%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SAC 50%
- Fair odds
- SAC -116
- NO +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 115.0 – 116.1 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +79 | +61 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +3 Elo | SAC 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 116.59th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 116.721st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 112.913th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 113.119th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.09th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–6 | Road vs home | 6–28th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 2–0 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.