Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Devin BookerAssists6
- Devin BookerRebounds11
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints31
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–106
- Q41.1Suns offensive team rebound103–106
- Q42.1Kevin Durant misses running pullup jump shot103–106
- Q46.0Devin Booker defensive rebound103–106
- Q46.1Anthony Davis misses free throw 2 of 2103–106
- Q46.1Kevin Durant enters the game for Josh Okogie103–106
- Q46.1Devin Booker enters the game for Jordan Goodwin103–106
- Q46.1Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Austin Reaves103–106
- Q46.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2103–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:45Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)PHX 95 – 94 LAL · PHX 39% → 57% +18PHX 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q43:54Anthony Davis makes 1-foot two point shot (LeBron James assists)PHX 95 – 96 LAL · LAL 42% → 57% +14LAL 42% → 57%+14 pts
- Q42:53LeBron James makes 16-foot two point shotPHX 97 – 100 LAL · LAL 58% → 73% +15LAL 58% → 73%+15 pts
- Q429.1Devin Booker makes driving layupPHX 101 – 102 LAL · PHX 6% → 30% +24PHX 6% → 30%+24 pts
- Q415.1Austin Reaves makes 27-foot step back jumpshotPHX 101 – 105 LAL · LAL 76% → >99% +24LAL 76% → >99%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- PHX 52%
- Fair odds
- PHX -109
- LAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 114.8 – 114.2 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +79 | +2 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +11 Elo | PHX 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 112.520th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 113.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.9 | Margin | −1.021st of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 109.325th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 110.210th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.3 | Pace | 101.99th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Road vs home | 8–27th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–2 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.