Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints24
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Spencer DinwiddieRebounds8
Suns- Devin BookerPoints34
- Devin BookerAssists12
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds22
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–112
- Q41.1Yuta Watanabe offensive rebound116–112
- Q41.1Devin Booker misses 26-foot three point shot116–112
- Q43.0Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Cam Thomas116–112
- Q43.0Yuta Watanabe enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic116–112
- Q43.0Suns Full timeout116–112
- Q43.0Cam Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2116–112
- Q43.0Jusuf Nurkic enters the game for Keita Bates-Diop115–112
- Q43.0Cam Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2115–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:31Cam Thomas makes 24-foot step back jumpshotBKN 94 – 91 PHX · BKN 48% → 62% +14BKN 48% → 62%+14 pts
- Q48:31Bradley Beal makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)BKN 96 – 94 PHX · PHX 29% → 42% +14PHX 29% → 42%+14 pts
- Q48:04Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 99 – 94 PHX · BKN 58% → 72% +14BKN 58% → 72%+14 pts
- Q46:48Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three pointerBKN 102 – 98 PHX · BKN 54% → 69% +16BKN 54% → 69%+16 pts
- Q41:54Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot step back jumpshotBKN 112 – 106 PHX · BKN 78% → 94% +16BKN 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- PHX 52%
- Fair odds
- PHX -122
- BKN +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 114.3 – 115.8 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +63 | +95 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +14 Elo | PHX 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 115.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 113.113th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +2.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 114.111th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 112.014th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 99.425th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 6–620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+95 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.