Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints24
- Chris PaulAssists11
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds11
Suns- Devin BookerPoints32
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–119
- Q40.0Brandin Podziemski makes driving layup116–119
- Q45.0Bradley Beal makes free throw 2 of 2114–119
- Q45.0Bradley Beal makes free throw 1 of 2114–118
- Q45.0Chris Paul personal take foul114–117
- Q45.0Bradley Beal defensive rebound114–117
- Q45.1Stephen Curry misses 27-foot three point shot114–117
- Q49.1Dario Saric enters the game for Kevon Looney114–117
- Q49.1Warriors Full timeout114–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:40Moses Moody makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 96 – 97 PHX · GS 27% → 41% +14GS 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q46:47Devin Booker makes 26-foot three pointerGS 96 – 100 PHX · PHX 59% → 74% +15PHX 59% → 74%+15 pts
- Q45:41Devin Booker makes 26-foot three pointerGS 96 – 103 PHX · PHX 75% → 87% +12PHX 75% → 87%+12 pts
- Q415.1Brandin Podziemski makes driving layupGS 114 – 115 PHX · GS 1% → 23% +22GS 1% → 23%+22 pts
- Q49.1Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2GS 114 – 116 PHX · PHX 83% → 97% +14PHX 83% → 97%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- PHX 58%
- Fair odds
- PHX -147
- GS +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 114.5 – 117.5 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +30 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +57 Elo | PHX 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 115.112th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 113.013th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +2.114th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 114.211th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.6 | Pace | 99.126th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 5–622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 0–2 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.