Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints30
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Luka SamanicRebounds7
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Josh GiddeyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–134
- Q420.1Aleksej Pokusevski defensive rebound120–134
- Q423.2Keyonte George misses driving floating jump shot120–134
- Q436.1Ousmane Dieng makes 1-foot dunk (Davis Bertans assists)120–134
- Q454.0Taylor Hendricks makes 1-foot dunk (Keyonte George assists)120–132
- Q458.0Luka Samanic defensive rebound118–132
- Q41:02Tre Mann misses two point shot118–132
- Q41:18Collin Sexton personal foul118–132
- Q41:20Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2118–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:18Josh Giddey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)UTAH 0 – 3 OKC · OKC 82% → 85% +4OKC 82% → 85%+4 pts
- Q110:34Jalen Williams makes 22-foot three point shot (Cason Wallace assists)UTAH 0 – 6 OKC · OKC 85% → 89% +3OKC 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q15:18Simone Fontecchio makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 14 – 15 OKC · UTAH 14% → 18% +4UTAH 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q15:07Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)UTAH 14 – 18 OKC · OKC 81% → 86% +4OKC 81% → 86%+4 pts
- Q13:42Isaiah Joe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)UTAH 18 – 21 OKC · OKC 80% → 84% +5OKC 80% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12.5
- OKC 88%
- Fair odds
- OKC -448
- UTAH +448 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.9 – 122.3 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +112 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +347 Elo | OKC 88.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 80.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 81.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30111.0 | Points scored | 119.76th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 112.513th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +7.24th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 116.27th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 109.27th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.810th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 7–413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+112 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.