LA Clippers at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints41
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Jazz- John CollinsPoints20
- Talen Horton-TuckerAssists5
- John CollinsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–103
- Q411.1shot clock turnover117–103
- Q435.1Walker Kessler makes 2-foot dunk (Keyonte George assists)117–103
- Q439.1Norman Powell bad pass (Walker Kessler steals)117–101
- Q41:01Jordan Clarkson makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot117–101
- Q41:08Walker Kessler defensive rebound117–99
- Q41:12James Harden misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot117–99
- Q41:33Ivica Zubac defensive rebound117–99
- Q41:36Simone Fontecchio misses 22-foot three point jumper117–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:32Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 37 – 32 UTAH · LAC 65% → 72% +7LAC 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q26:05Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 42 – 36 UTAH · LAC 67% → 74% +7LAC 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q38:59Simone Fontecchio makes 23-foot three point shot (John Collins assists)LAC 64 – 57 UTAH · UTAH 16% → 22% +6UTAH 16% → 22%+6 pts
- Q38:39Paul George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)LAC 67 – 57 UTAH · LAC 78% → 84% +6LAC 78% → 84%+6 pts
- Q46:29Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 102 – 93 UTAH · LAC 83% → 92% +9LAC 83% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 71%
- Fair odds
- LAC -165
- UTAH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 115.0 – 111.2 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | −49 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +157 Elo | LAC 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 111.322nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 119.825th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.5 | Margin | −8.527th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 108.726th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 117.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.0 | Pace | 100.917th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.