Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints43
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints41
- Malik MonkAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–128
- Q40.0Thunder offensive team rebound123–128
- Q40.0Chet Holmgren misses 19-foot two point shot123–128
- Q41.1Keegan Murray makes free throw 2 of 2123–128
- Q41.1Jaylin Williams enters the game for Luguentz Dort123–127
- Q41.1Isaiah Joe enters the game for Josh Giddey123–127
- Q41.1Keegan Murray makes free throw 1 of 2123–127
- Q41.1Luguentz Dort personal foul123–126
- Q43.1Luguentz Dort enters the game for Jaylin Williams123–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:34Ousmane Dieng makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 87 – 88 SAC · OKC 37% → 48% +11OKC 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q31:21Malik Monk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)OKC 87 – 91 SAC · SAC 52% → 63% +12SAC 52% → 63%+12 pts
- Q350.0Domantas Sabonis makes 26-foot step back jumpshotOKC 89 – 94 SAC · SAC 56% → 67% +12SAC 56% → 67%+12 pts
- Q43:00Josh Giddey makes 24-foot jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 117 – 119 SAC · OKC 21% → 35% +14OKC 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q42:24De'Aaron Fox makes two point shotOKC 117 – 121 SAC · SAC 67% → 82% +15SAC 67% → 82%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 60%
- Fair odds
- OKC -119
- SAC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 118.7 – 117.4 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +105 | +47 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +69 Elo | OKC 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 116.38th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.5 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 113.314th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 113.920th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.613th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Road vs home | 7–310th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+105 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 0–1 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.