Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints17
- Malik MonkAssists5
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints31
- James HardenAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–119
- Q48.1Jordan Ford makes driving layup98–119
- Q415.1shot clock turnover96–119
- Q439.1Jordan Ford out of bounds bad pass turnover96–119
- Q442.1Chris Duarte defensive rebound96–119
- Q445.1Bones Hyland misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot97–119
- Q459.1Bones Hyland defensive rebound96–119
- Q41:07Sasha Vezenkov misses layup96–119
- Q41:16Chris Duarte defensive rebound96–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:30Kevin Huerter makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 7 – 6 LAC · SAC 42% → 48% +6SAC 42% → 48%+6 pts
- Q16:37Terance Mann makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)SAC 13 – 15 LAC · LAC 51% → 58% +7LAC 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q15:38De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 16 – 17 LAC · SAC 38% → 44% +7SAC 38% → 44%+7 pts
- Q12:38De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot three pointerSAC 19 – 24 LAC · SAC 29% → 35% +6SAC 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q12:15Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)SAC 19 – 27 LAC · LAC 65% → 71% +6LAC 65% → 71%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 56%
- Fair odds
- LAC -116
- SAC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.4 – 115.5 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAC and SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +69 | +73 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +45 Elo | LAC 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 113.916th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 109.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +4.16th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 113.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 109.35th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.023rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 8–39th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 0–1 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.