Portland Trail Blazers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints38
- Shaedon SharpeAssists6
- Moses BrownRebounds12
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints34
- Paul GeorgeAssists8
- Paul GeorgeRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–132
- Q42.1Paul George defensive rebound127–132
- Q44.1Toumani Camara misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot127–132
- Q47.2Paul George makes free throw 2 of 2127–132
- Q47.2Paul George makes free throw 1 of 2127–131
- Q47.2Matisse Thybulle personal foul127–130
- Q49.0Anfernee Simons makes 1-foot driving dunk127–130
- Q415.1Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2125–130
- Q415.1Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2125–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:25Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three pointerPOR 119 – 120 LAC · POR 19% → 36% +17POR 19% → 36%+17 pts
- Q43:32Shaedon Sharpe makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Duop Reath assists)POR 121 – 120 LAC · POR 36% → 51% +15POR 36% → 51%+15 pts
- Q42:00Anfernee Simons makes driving layupPOR 123 – 122 LAC · POR 35% → 55% +20POR 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q41:13Terance Mann makes free throw 1 of 2POR 123 – 123 LAC · LAC 41% → 54% +13LAC 41% → 54%+13 pts
- Q431.0Paul George makes driving layupPOR 123 – 126 LAC · LAC 72% → 94% +23LAC 72% → 94%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -8
- LAC 79%
- Fair odds
- LAC -288
- POR +288 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 104.8 – 112.8 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | +63 | POR: Missing Malcolm Brogdon −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +231 Elo | LAC 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 73.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 74.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.5 | Points scored | 113.019th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 109.05th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.9 | Margin | +4.06th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.8 | Offense rating | 112.515th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 108.45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.0 | Pace | 100.023rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–9 | Road vs home | 7–39th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−53 Elo- Malcolm Brogdon right knee soreness−17 Elo
Clippers
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.