Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints17
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints36
- Brandon IngramAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–121
- Q410.1Timberwolves defensive team rebound107–121
- Q412.0Jordan Hawkins misses driving floating jump shot107–121
- Q428.2Josh Minott makes free throw 1 of 1107–121
- Q428.2Naji Marshall shooting foul106–121
- Q428.2Josh Minott makes driving layup106–121
- Q441.1Wendell Moore Jr. defensive rebound104–121
- Q444.1Naji Marshall misses running pullup jump shot104–121
- Q449.1Naji Marshall defensive rebound104–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:55Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 78 – 83 NO · MIN 22% → 32% +10MIN 22% → 32%+10 pts
- Q343.0Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shake Milton assists)MIN 83 – 87 NO · MIN 24% → 35% +10MIN 24% → 35%+10 pts
- Q32.0Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)MIN 83 – 90 NO · NO 66% → 76% +11NO 66% → 76%+11 pts
- Q30.1Jordan McLaughlin makes 49-foot three pointerMIN 86 – 90 NO · MIN 24% → 34% +11MIN 24% → 34%+11 pts
- Q410:35CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)MIN 86 – 93 NO · NO 67% → 78% +11NO 67% → 78%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1.5
- MIN 56%
- Fair odds
- MIN -103
- NO +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.5 – 111.2 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | +56 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +39 Elo | MIN 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 113.516th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.2 | Points allowed | 114.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.8 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 111.718th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.3 | Defense rating | 112.418th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.513th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Road vs home | 8–411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.