New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints14
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Dyson DanielsRebounds8
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–133
- Q419.0Jalen Hood-Schifino defensive rebound89–133
- Q424.0Dyson Daniels misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot89–133
- Q433.0shot clock turnover89–133
- Q456.1Maxwell Lewis defensive rebound89–133
- Q459.1Jordan Hawkins misses 18-foot pullup jump shot89–133
- Q41:13Max Christie makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Christian Wood assists)89–133
- Q41:27Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound89–131
- Q41:31Jordan Hawkins misses 21-foot pullup jump shot89–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:54Jose Alvarado makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 33 – 32 LAL · NO 48% → 55% +7NO 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q210:42LeBron James makes 27-foot three pointerNO 33 – 35 LAL · LAL 45% → 52% +7LAL 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q24:32Taurean Prince makes 22-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)NO 45 – 53 LAL · LAL 61% → 68% +8LAL 61% → 68%+8 pts
- Q23:44Jonas Valanciunas makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 50 – 53 LAL · NO 36% → 44% +8NO 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q22:08Taurean Prince makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)NO 51 – 60 LAL · LAL 64% → 72% +8LAL 64% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1
- NO 54%
- Fair odds
- NO -113
- LAL +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 113.8 – 112.8 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +88 | +4 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +31 Elo | NO 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 112.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 113.016th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.821st of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 109.223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 110.09th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.810th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 9–27th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.