New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints29
- Naji MarshallAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds15
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints17
- Tre JonesAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game146–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter146–110
- Q423.1Cody Zeller makes 7-foot two point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)146–110
- Q439.1Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)144–110
- Q448.1Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound144–107
- Q451.2Jordan Hawkins misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot144–107
- Q457.0Jordan Hawkins defensive rebound144–107
- Q41:00Sandro Mamukelashvili misses 26-foot three point jumper144–107
- Q41:14Jordan Hawkins makes 19-foot step back jumpshot (Cody Zeller assists)144–107
- Q41:26Malaki Branham makes three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)142–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:45CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three pointer (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 3 – 6 SA · NO 58% → 64% +6NO 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q18:11Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 7 – 6 SA · NO 66% → 72% +6NO 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q16:32Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotNO 12 – 8 SA · NO 72% → 77% +5NO 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q15:22Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three pointer (Victor Wembanyama assists)NO 14 – 13 SA · SA 23% → 29% +5SA 23% → 29%+5 pts
- Q311:12Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 64 – 54 SA · NO 82% → 87% +5NO 82% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -7.5
- NO 77%
- Fair odds
- NO -243
- SA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 119.2 – 112.5 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +94 | −16 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +209 Elo | NO 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 70.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 110.625th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 121.227th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −10.529th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 105.628th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 115.624th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.93rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 2–1128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+94 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.