Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints37
- D'Angelo RussellAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints30
- Keldon JohnsonAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–119
- Q40.0Keldon Johnson bad pass (Anthony Davis steals)122–119
- Q40.1Taurean Prince makes free throw 2 of 2122–119
- Q40.1Zach Collins enters the game for Tre Jones121–119
- Q40.1Lakers offensive team rebound121–119
- Q40.1Taurean Prince misses free throw 1 of 2121–119
- Q40.1Malaki Branham personal foul121–119
- Q41.1Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three pointer (Tre Jones assists)121–119
- Q48.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2121–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:04Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Keldon Johnson assists)LAL 117 – 113 SA · SA <1% → 8% +7SA <1% → 8%+7 pts
- Q452.0Malaki Branham makes two point shotLAL 117 – 115 SA · SA 6% → 21% +15SA 6% → 21%+15 pts
- Q421.2Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2LAL 117 – 116 SA · SA 11% → 26% +16SA 11% → 26%+16 pts
- Q417.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2LAL 118 – 116 SA · LAL 76% → 91% +16LAL 76% → 91%+16 pts
- Q417.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2LAL 119 – 116 SA · LAL 91% → 98% +6LAL 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -6.5
- LAL 73%
- Fair odds
- LAL -150
- SA +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.7 – 112.6 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1594 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | −43 | LAL: Missing LeBron James −53 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +176 Elo | LAL 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 109.425th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 121.427th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −12.030th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 104.530th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.1 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–8 | Road vs home | 1–1028th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−11 Elo- LeBron James left calf contusion−53 Elo
Spurs
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.