Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints37
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists17
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–127
- Q40.0(00:00) [Lakers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)125–127
- Q40.1LeBron James makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)125–127
- Q42.1Richaun Holmes enters the game for Luka Doncic122–127
- Q42.1A.J. Lawson enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.122–127
- Q42.1Markieff Morris enters the game for Grant Williams122–127
- Q42.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Dereck Lively II122–127
- Q42.1Jaden Hardy enters the game for Dante Exum122–127
- Q42.1Lakers Full timeout122–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:34Dante Exum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 97 – 99 DAL · DAL 44% → 58% +13DAL 44% → 58%+13 pts
- Q49:11Dante Exum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 101 – 102 DAL · DAL 39% → 54% +14DAL 39% → 54%+14 pts
- Q45:50Dante Exum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 108 – 113 DAL · DAL 61% → 77% +16DAL 61% → 77%+16 pts
- Q44:37Dante Exum makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 110 – 116 DAL · DAL 69% → 84% +15DAL 69% → 84%+15 pts
- Q41:16Austin Reaves makes 24-foot step back jumpshotLAL 121 – 124 DAL · LAL 3% → 17% +14LAL 3% → 17%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- LAL 60%
- Fair odds
- LAL -112
- DAL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 116.1 – 115.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | +69 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +74 Elo | LAL 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 119.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 116.521st of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 117.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 113.720th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.2 | Pace | 102.66th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.