Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints20
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Myles TurnerRebounds7
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints41
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–123
- Q45.1shot clock turnover109–123
- Q429.1Oscar Tshiebwe makes free throw 2 of 2109–123
- Q429.1Pacers offensive team rebound108–123
- Q429.1Oscar Tshiebwe misses free throw 1 of 2108–123
- Q429.1Jalen Hood-Schifino shooting foul108–123
- Q429.1Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound108–123
- Q432.1Kendall Brown misses 8-foot pullup jump shot108–123
- Q446.1Maxwell Lewis enters the game for LeBron James108–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:11Taurean Prince makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)IND 79 – 88 LAL · LAL 70% → 79% +9LAL 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q410:43Obi Toppin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)IND 87 – 92 LAL · IND 21% → 31% +11IND 21% → 31%+11 pts
- Q48:23Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 94 – 98 LAL · IND 21% → 33% +12IND 21% → 33%+12 pts
- Q46:11Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 99 – 102 LAL · IND 21% → 35% +14IND 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q45:50Cam Reddish makes 22-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)IND 99 – 105 LAL · LAL 66% → 80% +15LAL 66% → 80%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -0.5
- IND 52%
- Fair odds
- IND -124
- LAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 121.3 – 119.6 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Lineups | +100 | +22 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +17 Elo | IND 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30128.4 | Points scored | 113.117th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.9 | Points allowed | 112.010th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.5 | Margin | +1.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.6 | Offense rating | 110.123rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 109.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Pace | 101.99th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.