New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints40
- Naji MarshallAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds18
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints27
- Deni AvdijaAssists7
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game142–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter142–122
- Q413.0Kira Lewis Jr. defensive rebound142–122
- Q417.1Bilal Coulibaly misses free throw 2 of 2142–122
- Q417.1Wizards offensive team rebound142–122
- Q417.1Bilal Coulibaly misses free throw 1 of 2142–122
- Q417.1Cody Zeller personal foul142–122
- Q422.1Wizards offensive team rebound142–122
- Q426.0Mike Muscala misses 23-foot three point jumper142–122
- Q435.1Jordan Hawkins makes 2-foot driving dunk (Cody Zeller assists)142–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:47Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)NO 28 – 33 WSH · WSH 40% → 47% +7WSH 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q210:41CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 31 – 35 WSH · NO 47% → 55% +7NO 47% → 55%+7 pts
- Q210:21CJ McCollum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 34 – 35 WSH · NO 54% → 62% +7NO 54% → 62%+7 pts
- Q29:29Jared Butler makes 24-foot three point jumper (Danilo Gallinari assists)NO 34 – 40 WSH · WSH 43% → 51% +7WSH 43% → 51%+7 pts
- Q28:46Naji Marshall makes 26-foot three pointer (CJ McCollum assists)NO 39 – 40 WSH · NO 54% → 61% +7NO 54% → 61%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -5.5
- NO 71%
- Fair odds
- NO -198
- WSH +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 120.7 – 115.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | −61 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +158 Elo | NO 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 66.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 115.610th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 126.330th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −10.729th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 109.725th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 119.830th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.5 | Pace | 105.42nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 1–727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.