Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints21
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists4
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints34
- Joel EmbiidAssists6
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–146
- Q43.1shot clock turnover101–146
- Q44.076ers offensive team rebound101–146
- Q44.0Danuel House Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper101–146
- Q427.1Jared Butler makes 2-foot driving dunk101–146
- Q437.1Danuel House Jr. makes 25-foot step back jumpshot99–146
- Q450.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)99–143
- Q41:01Jaden Springer turnover96–143
- Q41:01Jaden Springer offensive charge96–143
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:36Tyrese Maxey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)WSH 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 80% → 84% +4PHI 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q111:12Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point shot (Tobias Harris assists)WSH 0 – 6 PHI · PHI 84% → 88% +3PHI 84% → 88%+3 pts
- Q110:46Tobias Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)WSH 0 – 9 PHI · PHI 88% → 91% +3PHI 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q15:01Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three pointerWSH 17 – 27 PHI · WSH 6% → 9% +2WSH 6% → 9%+2 pts
- Q11:59Patrick Beverley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marcus Morris Sr. assists)WSH 23 – 35 PHI · PHI 90% → 93% +3PHI 90% → 93%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -11
- PHI 86%
- Fair odds
- PHI -412
- WSH +412 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 114.3 – 125.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | +91 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +311 Elo | PHI 85.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 79.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 120.94th of 30 |
| 30th of 30125.3 | Points allowed | 113.818th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +7.14th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 118.92nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.1 | Defense rating | 112.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Pace | 101.115th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 8–38th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.