Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints23
- LeBron JamesAssists14
- Christian WoodRebounds8
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints36
- Malaki BranhamAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–129
- Q47.1shot clock turnover115–129
- Q431.2Jaxson Hayes makes layup (D'Moi Hodge assists)115–129
- Q439.0Colin Castleton defensive rebound113–129
- Q442.0Devonte' Graham misses 26-foot three point jumper113–129
- Q452.0Colin Castleton makes layup (Christian Wood assists)113–129
- Q458.0Jaxson Hayes defensive rebound111–129
- Q41:01Julian Champagnie misses 23-foot three point jumper111–129
- Q41:16Colin Castleton makes layup (D'Moi Hodge assists)111–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:53Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 55 – 64 SA · LAL 28% → 36% +8LAL 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q248.0LeBron James makes 23-foot step back jumpshotLAL 60 – 66 SA · LAL 35% → 44% +8LAL 35% → 44%+8 pts
- Q39:48Devin Vassell makes three pointer (Malaki Branham assists)LAL 66 – 78 SA · SA 67% → 75% +8SA 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q34:17Austin Reaves makes 29-foot running pullup jump shotLAL 78 – 88 SA · LAL 17% → 25% +8LAL 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q31:46Cedi Osman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)LAL 87 – 96 SA · SA 65% → 75% +10SA 65% → 75%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7.5
- LAL 77%
- Fair odds
- LAL -184
- SA +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 117.0 – 112.3 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1372 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | −38 | LAL: Missing Anthony Davis −64, D'Angelo Russell −18 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SA: Missing Tre Jones −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +208 Elo | LAL 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 64.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 109.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 121.427th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −11.630th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 104.630th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 115.724th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.4 | Pace | 104.04th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 1–1129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−19 Elo- Anthony Davis left adductor−64 Elo
- D'Angelo Russell migraine−18 Elo
Spurs
−38 Elo- Tre Jones illness−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.